Chef Connexion prides itself on providing timely commodity market information to help you make more informed menu and food purchasing decisions. Please consult with your local distributor sales representative as local market situations may differ or contact us to have a sales representative call on you.
Beef
July 28, 2023
The previous two weeks prices fell as expected. However, prices firmed up later last week and continued into the current week. Packers have been cutting back production, which has had a significant impact on buyer tactics. Canadian demand, as opposed to relatively robust U.S. demand, remains sluggish, meaning Canadian buyers continue to pay U.S. market prices in Canadian dollars while dealing with their own limited demand.
While there was an overall decline in prices over the last four weeks, it is essential to note that prices are still considerably higher than they were a year ago.
Looking ahead, beef features at retail are likely to remain lackluster throughout August, which could keep a lower price trend going.
The outlook for boxed beef presents both arguments for higher and lower prices.
On the one hand, U.S. demand continues to be above average, providing support for higher prices. Additionally, packers cutting production and tightening cattle supplies year over year in the U.S. could further increase prices. The soaring costs of cattle also put pressure on packers to increase prices.
On the other hand, beef has lost its competitive edge against pork and chicken, leading consumers to trade down due to inflation. Moreover, out front trades are mostly lower, and seasonal demand typically turns lower in July. Slowdowns in foodservice gains and export sales are further contributing factors that might influence prices to move downwards.
The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY.”
- Ribs – Prices are moving lower. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Striploins – Prices are moving lower. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Top Sirloins – Prices are moving higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Tenderloins – Prices are moving lower. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Briskets – Prices are moving lower. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Chucks – Prices are moving lower. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Rounds – Prices are moving lower. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Outside Skirt – Prices are moving lower. [Higher than same time L/Y}
- Flank Steak – Prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Ground Beef – Prices are steady. [Lower than same time L/Y]
Pork
July 28, 2023
Over the last month, pork prices have experienced a significant surge, rising by more than 25%. This increase is likely supported, in large part, by added consumer demand driven by historically high beef prices. As consumers seek more affordable alternatives to beef, the demand for pork has grown substantially, leading to the upward price movement.
The prices of pork cuts destined for processors have particularly contributed to the overall increase in prices. Notably, the prices of belly cuts, and consequently bacon, have seen substantial rises. Looking ahead to August, fresh tomatoes are expected to keep bacon in the spotlight, further driving demand and maintaining its higher price. Additionally, hams have also seen advancements in prices over the past week.
Considering the current market conditions, pork prices are likely to remain firm in the near term. There may be another week or two of price increases left before supply levels begin to increase, leading to a correction in prices. As supply catches up with demand, prices are expected to come down again.
Looking at futures projections, it is anticipated that pork prices will gradually decrease through August, September, and into October. This decrease is driven by the expectation of improved supply levels, which will help ease the current pricing pressure.
The ongoing interplay between supply, demand, and external factors such as beef prices can significantly impact pork menu prices. Staying informed will enable you to make strategic decisions regarding menu planning and pricing.
The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY”.
- Side Ribs – Prices are moving lower. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Back Ribs – Prices are steady to higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Tenderloins – Prices are moving higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Loins – Prices are moving higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Hams – Prices are moving higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Butts – Prices are moving lower. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Picnics – Prices are moving higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Bellies (Bacon) – Prices are moving higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
Poultry
July 28, 2023
While demand remains strong, price resistance is emerging, likely due to the high consumer prices for chicken, leading to reduced consumption for four consecutive months.
In the current market, chicken remains a competitive option and is expected to benefit from the relatively high prices of beef.
Price forecasts for key poultry cuts through September:
- Breasts: The breast market is expected to enter August on a softer price tone. Despite demand being better than normal due to high beef prices, it might not be enough to support the previously anticipated price levels, resulting in an expected price decline of around 4%.
- Wings: Wings prices are likely to remain steady influenced by various market variables, including imports from Brazil, cheap U.S. product, large stocks, and tepid foodservice traffic.
- Legs: The demand for chicken legs will remain strong, and prices are expected to stay steady to slightly lower through the summer into September.
The case for higher poultry prices is supported by durable demand, the supportive nature of beef prices, and the likelihood of retailers featuring the product at better than normal merchandising levels. Production problems are also expected to persist, and U.S. production is anticipated to decline year over year.
On the other hand, several factors indicate the case for lower poultry prices, such as retailers frequently featuring pork, high consumer chicken prices, and buyers possibly loading up on imported Brazilian product as a precautionary measure.
The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY.”
[Note, there are wide regional variances in poultry prices in Canada]
- Whole Birds – CDN prices are steady. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Wings – CDN prices are steady to higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Boneless Breasts – CDN prices are steady. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Legs – CDN prices are steady to lower. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Thighs – CDN prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
Seafood
July 28, 2023
The seafood market is currently experiencing softer demand for frozen seafood. Looking ahead, expectations are for continued lower prices across most seafood items for the immediate future.
The two seafood items with the best chance of seeing lower prices are imported shrimp and tilapia filet. Additionally, Norwegian salmon prices have dipped by an average of 6 percent, as reported by the Nasdaq Salmon Index.
The overall decline in seafood prices can be attributed to the sale of excess frozen inventory.
The Snow Crab season in Newfoundland and Labrador was extended until the end of July and this has contributed to short term firming prices on all snow crab products.
As restaurant operators, it is essential to consider these market dynamics while planning your seafood menu pricing strategies. The soft demand and excess inventory in the frozen seafood market offer an opportunity for cost savings. Take advantage of favourable pricing conditions now to optimize your seafood offerings.
The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY TO LOWER.”
- US White Shrimp– Prices are steady.
- Imported Tiger Shrimp – Prices are moving lower.
- Mahi Mahi – Prices are moving higher.
- Tilapia Filet – Prices are steady to lower.
- Cod Filet – Prices are steady.
- Pangasius [Basa] – Prices are steady to lower.
- Tuna Yellowfin – Prices are steady.
- Farmed Salmon Atlantic – Prices are steady.
- Alaskan Pollock – Prices are steady to lower.
- Haddock – Prices are steady.
- Flounder – Prices are steady to lower.
- Snow Crab – Prices are steady to higher. [Canadian product].
- Crabmeat [Blue] – Prices are steady to higher.
- Sea Scallops – Prices are steady to higher.
- Swordfish – Prices are steady.
- King Crab – Prices are steady but tight inventories.
- Lobster – Prices are steady to higher.
We have highlighted [*] items that are experiencing significant upward pricing pressure. Most produce items are higher than at the same time last year.
Vegetables
July 28, 2023
We have highlighted [*] items that are experiencing significant upward pricing pressure. Most produce items are higher than at the same time last year.
- Corn – Midwest production has started, and Western supplies are better. Steady pricing.
- Tomatoes Prices are moving higher. Weather has delayed Roma harvests. Supplies should be better in a week or two. East Coast supplies are tight.
- Bell Peppers – Prices are steady even while growing regions are transitioning.
- Chili Peppers – Prices are coming down as supplies are increasing.
- Broccoli – Prices continue to move lower on good supplies.
- Cauliflower – Prices are moving lower on good supplies.
- Celery – Prices are beginning to move lower as Midwest ramps up production.
- Carrots – Prices are steady on good supplies.
- Squash & Zucchini – Supplies and pricing are steady.
- Cabbage – Prices are moving lower on better supplies.
- Green Beans – Prices steady on improving supplies.
- *Brussel Sprouts – Prices remain high as supplies continue to be tight due to poor yields in some growing areas.
- *Asparagus – Prices remain high as Peruvian imports are down significantly and Mexico is experiencing weather issues..
- Cucumber – Prices are steady as East and West Coast supplies are meeting demand.
- Lettuce – Prices are beginning to increase due to poor yields because of extreme heat.
- Spring Mix/Spinach/Tender Greens – Prices and supplies are steady.
- *Eggplant – Prices are moving higher due to weather related issues in the West and East supplies are tight.
- Cilantro – Prices are lower after an increase in available product.
- Potatoes – Prices remain steady to higher on all varieties.
- Onions –Prices are steady to lower on all varieties.
- Garlic – Markets are steady on good supplies.
Mushrooms
July 28, 2023
- Mushrooms – Prices and supplies are steady.
Mixed Berries
July 28, 2023
- Strawberries – Prices are increasing due to poor yields caused by heat and humidity.
- Raspberries – High prices continue as supplies are reduced from Mexico due to extreme heat.
- Blackberries – Prices are stabilizing on improving supplies from California later this month.
- Blueberries – Prices are steady. The NW and California season are underway.
- Grapes – Prices are steady on all varieties.
Citrus
July 28, 2023
- Oranges – Prices are steady on good domestic and imported production.
- Limes – Prices are steady to higher on strong demand.
- Lemons – Prices are steady.
Fruit
July 28, 2023
- *Avocado – Higher prices due to tight supplies for large sizes and steady prices for smaller sizes.
- Apples – Prices are steady.
- Pears – Prices are steady to lower.
- Bananas -Prices are steady.
- Melons – All varieties of melons are steady.
- Pineapple – Prices are moving higher due to dwindling supplies through August.
We look forward to your questions, feedback and suggestions. Contact: Randy@gbfs.ca
