Chef Connexion prides itself on providing timely commodity market information to help you make more informed menu and food purchasing decisions. Please consult with your local distributor sales representative as local market situations may differ or contact us to have a sales representative call on you.
Your Menu
We understand the trifecta of higher food costs, labour costs, and energy costs are a significant challenge for the majority of foodservice operations. The foodservice sector saw food prices increase by 7.7% in December while the 12-month average rate of increase was 6.7%. We expect better times ahead but here’s a good read on adjusting your menu during inflationary times: Adjusting Your Restaurant Menu to Combat Inflation (backofhouse.io)
Beef
March 8, 2023
Prices are now trending higher compared to the same time last year, particularly for loin cuts which are entering their seasonal trend upwards. Despite an abundance of cattle, packers have exercised caution in managing their inventories and margins, leading to buyer concerns about potential supply shortages. Interestingly, US demand is starting to weaken, which could result in product backlogs and potential price stagnation.
Foodservice buyers are proceeding with caution when making put-down or out-front purchases due to uncertainty surrounding demand and menu inflation, dampening their willingness to make large purchases.
The case for higher prices:
- There is upward pricing momentum.
- Foodservice sales are encouraging.
- Cattle prices are strong which suggests future demand.
- Buyers appear anxious to acquire product.
- Production was low in the past four weeks.
The case for lower prices:
- Cattle supplies remain abundant.
- Beef has lost its competitive position against pork and chicken.
- Demand is showing signs of easing.
- Consumers are nervous about inflation and economic prospects.
- Lent is likely to cause demand to ease.
- Packers have work to do on inventories.
The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY TO HIGHER.”
- Ribs – Prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Striploins – Prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Top Sirloins – Prices are steady to higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Tenderloins – Prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Briskets – Prices are moving higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Chucks – Prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Rounds – Prices are steady. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Outside Skirt – Prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y}
- Flank Steak – Prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Ground Beef – Prices are steady to higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
Check out Canada Beef Foodservice Resources Canada Beef Foodservice – Canadian Beef | Canada Beef.
Pork
March 8, 2023
The latest figures for pork slaughter show stronger numbers than initially anticipated. If this trend of larger-than-projected harvests continues, it is likely to contribute to an already sizable cold storage inventory, which may curtail price hikes over the summer months.
Currently, demand is slowly increasing, and it is expected that retailers will feature pork more heavily over the next few months as a way to mitigate the high costs of beef.
Futures are pointing to price increases throughout Q3, with the average price increase from Q1 to Q2 over the past five years being over 10%. Therefore, the recommendation is to stock up on pork now based on this trend.
The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY TO HIGHER.”
- Side Ribs – Prices are moving seasonally higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Back Ribs – Prices are steady. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Tenderloins – Prices are steady. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Loins – Prices are steady to higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Hams – Prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Butts – Prices are steady to higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Picnics – Prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Bellies (Bacon) – Prices are steady to higher. [Lower than same time L/Y]
Check out FoodService – Verified Canadian Pork.
Poultry
March 8, 2023
The prices of chicken breasts and legs have been rising steadily, while wings have remained relatively steady but have increased since the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, the demand for chicken remains robust despite the higher prices, and it is expected to increase further, given its competitiveness compared to beef.
Arguments for higher prices include the strong demand for chicken in both retail and foodservice sectors, supportive pricing of competing meats, and continued retail feature support for chicken. Additionally, prices in the U.S. are on the rise.
However, there are also arguments for lower prices, including the fact that prices in the U.S. are still relatively low despite showing signs of increase. Moreover, there are pending production increases that could bring down prices in the future.
Price change forecast through April:
- Breast prices +6%
- Wing prices -3%
- Leg prices +3%
The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY TO HIGHER.”
[Note, there are wide regional variances in poultry prices in Canada]
- Whole Birds – CDN prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Wings – CDN prices are steady. [Lower than same time L/Y]
- Boneless Breasts / Tenderloins – CDN prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Legs – CDN prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
- Thighs – CDN prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
Check out Chicken.ca | Raised by a Canadian Farmer.
Seafood
March 8, 2023
Seafood prices have stabilized recently.
As a quick refresher: There are several factors that influence seafood prices, including supply and demand, seasonality, weather conditions, international trade policies, supply chain disruptions (such as COVID), and exchange rates. Seasonal demand can drive up prices for certain types of seafood, such as shrimp, lobster, and crab, during the winter months. Other factors that can impact seafood prices include changes in fishing quotas, government regulations, and environmental issues such as red tide or oil spills. The seafood market is highly diverse and varies by species, region, and market segment, so price trends for specific seafood products may not reflect the overall market trend.
The 2023 quotas for pollock and cod off Alaska are expected to be met quickly by crab fishermen, which could result in a temporary decrease in prices, as there is no crab quota in Alaskan waters.
The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY.”
- US White Shrimp– Prices are steady.
- Imported Tiger Shrimp – Prices are steady to higher.
- Mahi Mahi – Prices are steady.
- Tilapia Filet – Prices are steady.
- Cod Filet – Prices are steady to lower.
- Pangasius [Basa] – Prices are steady.
- Tuna Yellowfin – Prices are steady.
- Farmed Salmon Atlantic – Prices are steady.
- Alaskan Pollock – Prices are steady.
- Haddock – Prices are steady.
- Flounder – Prices are steady.
- Snow Crab – Prices are steady but with tight inventories. [Canadian Product/potential for strike].
- Crabmeat [Blue] – Prices are steady.
- Sea Scallops – Prices are steady to lower.
- Swordfish – Prices are steady.
- King Crab – Prices are steady but very tight inventories.
- Lobster – Prices are steady to higher.
Check out Urner Barry’s On-Line Catalog or Seafood Handbook (seafoodsource.com).
We have highlighted [*] items that are experiencing significant upward pricing pressure. Most produce items are higher than at the same time last year.
Vegetables
March 8, 2023
- Corn – Supplies are expected to improve over the next few weeks. Expect lower prices.
- Tomatoes – Florida prices are steady Mexico production has been affected by colder weather but supplies should increase over next few weeks.
- Bell Peppers – Prices are steady on adequate supplies and should get better as Spring production increases.
- Chili Peppers – Hot pepper prices are mixed this week. Habaneros, Poblanos, and Serranos are steady. Jalapeños prices are moving lower.
- Broccoli – Prices may move higher as cold weather affects growth.
- *Cauliflower – Expect continued higher prices as cold weather will keep markets elevated.
- Celery – Prices are rising due to continued cold temperatures in California and the desert regions.
- Carrots – Market is higher on jumbos.
- Squash & Zucchini – Prices are steady.
- Cabbage – Prices are higher on green cabbage on lower supplies; the red cabbage market is steady.
- Green Beans – Prices are steady on better supplies and lower demand.
- Brussel Sprouts – Supplies are good, and the market is holding steady.
- Asparagus – Prices are now moving lower as cold weather issues have abated.
- Cucumber – Prices are steady on ample supplies as Florida production is starting.
- Lettuce – Prices are trending up as harvesting yields have decreased.
- Spring Mix/Spinach – Prices and availability remain steady despite cold weather.
- *Eggplant – Prices are moving higher on lower supplies until new production starts.
- Cilantro – Prices are up on lower supplies due to cold weather.
- Potatoes – Markets are steady.
- Onions – Prices are steady while we switch growing regions.
- Garlic – Markets are steady on good supplies.
Mushrooms
March 8, 2023
- Mushrooms – Prices and supplies are steady.
Mixed Berries
March 8, 2023
- Strawberries – Cold weather is affecting California supplies. Supplies are better from Florida.
- Raspberries – Prices are decreasing as supplies increase from Florida, Mexico, and California.
- Blackberries – Prices are steady on Mexican product.
- Blueberries – Prices are steady on Mexican product.
- Grapes – Prices and supplies are steady to lower.
Citrus
March 8, 2023
- Oranges – Markets are steady on good supplies.
- *Limes – Higher prices through mid-April as cold weather at end of last year is affecting production now.
- Lemons – Prices are moving higher on increased demand for Lenten season.
Fruit
March 8, 2023
- Avocado – Prices are steady on adequate supplies.
- Apples – Prices are steady.
- Pears – Prices are steady to higher.
- Bananas – Prices and supplies are steady.
- Melons – Cantaloupe prices are down while Honeydews are up slightly.
- Pineapple – Prices are steady on good supplies.
We look forward to your questions, feedback and suggestions. Contact: Randy@gbfs.ca
