Chef Connexion prides itself on providing timely commodity market information to help you make more informed menu and food purchasing decisions. Please consult with your local distributor sales representative as local market situations may differ or contact us to have a sales representative call on you.

General Price Trend Comment

Transportation costs and agricultural commodity prices are now off well off their peaks, “the trend in food price inflation should start to soften towards the end of this year and into 2023,” Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a client note.

Beef

November 15, 2022

Beef markets have been mixed with AAA [Choice] and AA [Select] prices going in opposite directions. Most of the holiday buying is done and beef demand is now entering its low point of the year. 

There continues to be an oversupply of cattle to move in both the U.S. and Canada and supplies should stay ample. The U.S. market is pushing product north which will increase Canadian availability and should lower prices.

Buying activity was minimal despite plenty of product on offer. Few buyers are showing any interest in taking positions as December’s prices may be even better.

The market call for the next few weeks is “LOWER.”

  • Ribs – Prices are steady to lower. [Lower than same time L/Y]
  • Striploins – Prices are steady to lower. [Lower than same time L/Y]
  • Top Sirloins – Prices are steady. [Higher than same time L/Y]
  • Tenderloins – Prices are steady to higher. [Higher than same time L/Y]
  • Briskets – Prices are steady to lower. [Lower than same time L/Y]
  • Chucks – Prices are moving lower. [Higher than same time L/Y]
  • Rounds – Prices are moving lower. [Lower than same time L/Y]
  • Ground Beef – Prices are steady to lower. [Lower than same time L/Y]

Check out Canada Beef Foodservice Resources Canada Beef Foodservice – Canadian Beef | Canada Beef.


Pork

November 15, 2022

November is typically the low price point for Pork and this year is no different.

Prices continued their downward trend across the entire pork complex. Lack of demand continues to be felt across the supply chain. Demand continues to be affected by economic and social factors outside of the meat supply chain itself and low-priced offers on fresh bellies, loins, and hams are a testament to this. 

December pork futures continue to decline so pork buyers ought to be capitalizing on the availability of low-priced product while they can! 

For 2023, its all about export demand. If exports continue to sag, we may be in for a longer low-price run.

The market call for the next few weeks is “LOWER.” 

  • Side Ribs – Prices are moving lower. [Lower than same time L/Y]
  • Back Ribs – Prices are moving lower [Lower than same time L/Y]
  • Tenderloins – Prices are steady. [Lower than same time L/Y]
  • Loins – Prices are moving lower. [Lower than same time L/Y]
  • Hams – Prices are steady. [Higher than same time L/Y]
  • Butts – Prices continue to move lower. [Higher than same time L/Y]
  • Picnics – Prices are steady. [Higher than same time L/Y]
  • Bellies (Bacon) – Prices are moving lower. [Lower than same time L/Y]

Check out FoodService – Verified Canadian Pork.


Poultry

November 15, 2022

Wing prices have finally fallen and are now far below last year. The first place to look for reasons is the fact that U.S. wings have fallen even harder and have become much more of a factor in the Canadian market. There is also a good inventory of Brazilian wings in storage. That coupled with a noted weakening in the foodservice traffic combined to finally tame wing prices.

Breast prices have fallen as well but that has been a drop from very high levels. Prices are still averaging more than the prior two years. Meanwhile legs have also eased back but are still at very high levels. Legs can be expected to continue to play a significant role in grocer merchandising efforts in this inflationary environment.

Canadian Chicken Price forecast through January 2023:

  • Breasts: -2%
  • Wings: 0%
  • Legs: -3%

The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY TO LOWER.” 

[Note, there is a wide variance of poultry prices between regions in Canada.]

  • Whole Birds – CDN prices are steady. [Higher than same time L/Y]
  • Wings – CDN prices are moving lower. [Lower than same time L/Y] 
  • Breasts – CDN prices are moving lower. [Higher than same time L/Y] 
  • Legs – CDN prices are steady. [Higher than same time L/Y]
  • Thighs – CDN prices are steady to lower. [Higher than same time L/Y]

Check out Chicken.ca | Raised by a Canadian Farmer.


Seafood

November 15, 2022

Most of the seafood items we monitor appear to be steady.

Did you know frozen seafood is one of the fastest-growing categories in foodservice. The research also found consumers consider it “highly acceptable” to use frozen, creating a win-win for both the operator and their customer. Fifty-five percent of foodservice operators reported an increase in frozen seafood purchases mentioning shrimp, salmon, cod, haddock, tilapia, and pollock ranked at the top of their purchases. 

The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY.”

  • U.S. Shrimp – Prices are steady. 
  • Imported Shrimp – Prices are steady to lower. 
  • Tilapia Filet – Prices are steady. 
  • Cod Filet – Prices are steady. 
  • Tuna Yellowfin – Prices are steady. 
  • Farmed Salmon Atlantic – Prices are steady to lower. 
  • Alaskan Pollock – Prices are steady.
  • Haddock – Prices are steady.
  • Snow Crab – Prices are steady. 
  • Crabmeat [Blue] – Prices are steady to lower.
  • Sea Scallops – Prices are steady.
  • Swordfish – Prices are steady.
  • Lobster – Prices are steady

Check out Urner Barry’s On-Line Catalog or Seafood Handbook (seafoodsource.com).


We have highlighted [*] items that are experiencing significant upward pricing pressure.

Vegetables

November 15, 2022
  • *Corn – Tighter supplies due to US holiday demand and Hurricane Nicole will affect harvest and production. Mexico and California will start in early December. 
  • *Tomatoes – East Coast round and Roma stocks are extremely limited due to Hurricane Ian damage. Eastern Mexico is the current source for West Coast tomatoes. Expect continued high prices until into the new year.
  • Celery – Expect elevated prices due to strong demand through the holiday season. California production will start in early to mid-December. 
  • *Bell Peppers – California red bell peppers are extremely limited due to heavy rain and cold temperatures. Prices are escalating. Eastern green bell pepper supply is lighter, and the market is steady. Greenhouse red pepper supplies remain short.
  • Carrots – The market is holding steady, and quality is good.
  • *Broccoli – Prices are moving higher. Supplies from California are extremely tight. The transition to the desert growing regions may improve the situation.
  • *Cauliflower – The market continues to climb. Stocks are scarce in California. Quality is poor throughout the industry. Harvesting is transitioning to the desert where conditions will improve.
  • Squash & Zucchini – The market is steady. Stocks are increasing in South Florida. Cool weather tightened Mexican supplies, but volume should return to normal levels by late November. 
  • Cabbage – Red cabbage is moving higher while green cabbage is holding steady.
  • *Green Beans – Supplies are short, and the market is high. Anticipate this shortage to continue in the East. Western supplies are also very short.
  • Brussel Sprouts – Supplies are good, and the market is holding steady.
  • *Asparagus – Higher prices are forecast through November as supplies tighten. Peruvian supplies are steady.
  • Cucumber – Eastern supplies have improved as production has increased in Florida and Mexico
  • *Lettuce – Expect record-high prices on very limited availability until growing regions in the West kick in later this month. We should see some relief as production moves to the desert regions.
  • Spring Mix/Spinach – With extreme markets on lettuce, spring mix varieties are also very short now and prices are moving higher. Again, we should see relief as production moves to the desert.
  • Eggplant – Prices are declining as supplies have increased on lower demand. Production has also started out of the Coachella Valley.
  • Cilantro – Market mostly steady on good supplies.
  • Potatoes – Markets are steady.
  • Onions – Prices steady as the new crop production becomes available. Green onion market is higher.
  • Garlic – Markets are steady on good supplies.

Mushrooms

November 15, 2022
  • Mushrooms – Some improvement in supplies and pricing over the last few weeks. 

Mixed Berries

November 15, 2022
  • *Strawberries – Prices are higher as rain has impeded harvests and caused quality problems in California. Expect higher prices through end of November while Mexican imports have remained low.
  • Raspberries – Prices are higher as the California season is past its peak.
  • Blackberries – Prices are steady.
  • Blueberries – Prices are steady.
  • Grapes – The California season will wrap up in late December. Chilean imports will begin in mid-December. Expect markets to gradually rise as the California season winds down.

Citrus

November 15, 2022
  • Oranges – Prices are coming down as the new crop season is now underway. 
  • Limes – Prices are steady on increasing supplies.
  • Lemons – Prices are steady on good supplies.

Fruit

November 15, 2022
  • Avocado – Prices are steady on adequate supplies
  • Melons – Cantaloupe markets are higher as demand exceeds supplies. Honeydew supplies and markets are steady. Watermelons are also moving higher on weather related issues.
  • Pineapple – Prices are steady on good supplies.
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